Picks For The Liga MX Semi-Finals First Leg

Picks For The Liga MX Semi-Finals First Leg

We’re down to 4 teams in the LigaMX playoffs, and there have been very few surprises to this point. Maybe some people would argue that they thought Tigres were going to find a way past Pachuca. The Santos elimination was a bit of a surprise, but if you look at their roster, and Toluca’s side by side you’d realize that there’s more talent on the Toluca side. It was just that Toluca had a very bad last half of the season. When the season started though they looked like real title contenders. 

We’ll be the first to say we didn’t expect this resurrection that Toluca was able to pull off. Against Club America though, they’ll probably find that they bit off more than they can chew. Here are our picks for the first leg games in the LigaMX semifinals  

Club America Beats Toluca In Both Games 

Toluca player verus Club America
@ClubAmerica/Instagram

We’re just going to come out and say that we feel that Club America is going to beat Toluca in both games. The defensive instability that Toluca has shown throughout the entire tournament is something that’s concerning. To their credit they played much better defensively speaking in the second leg game of the previous round against Santos. Club America just has a lot more offensive options than Santos. 

All things considered, Club America isn’t all that bad. Picking a favorite when the favorite is a road team is probably not something that we love to do. However, currently that -110 number for Club America on the road at Toluca isn’t terrible. Considering how Club America’s last series went, oddsmakers could’ve certainly chosen to go with a much wider margin for the Club America win. If you’re interested in making this pick our advice would be to go ahead and place the bet with enough time to spare before the game. We’ll probably see an influx in the number of people who take that Club America number on the road. That could make them an even larger favorite making the pick not all that worthwhile.  

Pachuca and Monterrey Will Play To A Draw 

Pachuca player fighting of Rayados competition
@Tuzos/Instagram

This is a matchup that we expect will be much closer than the other series. In their previous series Pachuca literally ran circles around Tigres. After the game Tigres head coach, Miguel Herrera, said that his team was too old. While this Rayados team may not be as dynamic as Pachuca, we don’t expect them to be as pedestrian as Tigres. They’ll be able to fight for possession in that midfield throughout the whole game. At the end of the day the interesting part about this matchup is trying to figure whether Pachuca’s dynamic style of play can outlast a Rayados team which features more quality players across the board.   

If we get to a late game scenario in which the game is still tied, we don’t anticipate any of the teams to be overly aggressive in their efforts to break that tie. With that in mind that +250 number on the draw just seems too appealing to pass up. This is one of those rare games in which the win number for both teams is positive. Those odds certainly reflect what we’re saying about the game being evenly matched. Literally it’s too close to call for our taste. Entertainment wise the best thing that could happen is to have Rayados find a goal early in the game. That would cause Pachuca to play with a sense of urgency. In any case, we still see the draw as the most likely outcome.

Disclaimer 

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