We’ll be the first to admit that our picks for the semi final rounds went off the rails! To be fair, that 5-2 first leg result in Pachuca versus Monterrey caught everyone off guard. The way that Toluca was kind of limping into the playoffs didn’t give us a ton of confidence. As we said in our previous picks articles Toluca had a pretty bad middle third of the season. We even put out an analysis on what we felt had gone wrong. Since Nacho Ambriz is actually a friend of the site going back to his days at Queretaro he probably gave the article a peek, and got back on track!
In any case, Toluca is still coming into this series as the victim. We have to be very careful with that though because they were underdogs in their last two matchups as well. This first game that will take place tonight is going to be key for the team moving forward. Both Almada and Ambriz know that the last thing that they want to do is arrive on Sunday in Pachuca knowing that basically all hope is lost. Here’s a break-down of what to expect out of the 2 games, and how you may want to bet them to make some cash!
Toluca versus Pachuca First Leg Game
Nacho Ambriz seems to have crafted the perfect strategy to play these playoff series. He’s much more offensive at home. He’s had the benefit of earning a lead in both of the previous contests. So we expect this game to be less conservative. A lot of people criticized Pachuca for the way that they played the second leg game in Monterrey against Rayados. We said here that our concern was that Almada wouldn’t play a conservative game. We were wrong, he now understands that you have to win certain games or at least not lose them badly at all costs.
On the betting side of things this Liga MX final seems to be a free for all! Currently, there are no odds on the second leg game, but the first leg is wide open! All three potential results are getting positive betting odds. We’re really tempted to go with the tie which is currently at +260 offering the best odds. Today’s game though is potentially the one that you don’t want to miss. We don’t expect Pachuca to come out and back down. Toluca on the other hand knows that they’ve essentially won the previous two series with a good home performance. This means that they are probably going to be more open to taking chances today.
Pachuca versus Toluca Second Leg Game
Obviously the way that this second game is going to play out will depend on the result of the first game. At this point we’re a little scared to make a prediction on the final score of the first game. We said we liked the odds on the tie, but we do expect the game to be a blow for blow slug fest. We like the tie because we feel that if the game gets to a late stage with a tie score both teams are going to seem content, and they’ll just kind of skate through the rest of the game and let it end in a tie!
For this second game we are expecting Pachuca to pull through. Actually we do hope that the first game ends in a tie. That way the betting odds on Pachuca to win the title won’t be as unfavorable to bettors. We’ll certainly update this article once we get a sense of where the numbers are going to be heading into Sunday’s game.
