If picking winners in regular league play is tough, doing so with national teams is virtually impossible. What we have seen in the last few years across virtually all confederations is that games have a tendency to tight up quite a bit. UEFA arguably sees some of the heaviest mismatches of all confederations particularly in qualifiers for the World Cup, and the Euro Cup. Because you can get matchups like a Germany versus San Marino that you know ahead of time won’t be competitive. With the Nations League’s different tiers though we do get a chance to see evenly matched games that are tough to predict.
With how odd these games tend to be, it has prompted us to pick perhaps the biggest favorite that we’ll pick all year in any of these articles. What worries us about that particular pick is that we’re dealing with one team that’s more worried about the World Cup at this point, and the other squad is fully invested in the Nations League. There’s actually where we lean towards a team that’s out of the World Cup because the game should matter more to them. We won’t force you to guess though, here are our picks for Thursday’s UEFA Nations League games.
Germany Over Hungary
Germany is favored at a -400 line, and we just can’t bet against them. Hungary has not had a bad Nations League campaign by any standard they currently lead the group. Our main concern is that Germany, and many other European squads that are going to the World Cup are more concerned with that particular tournament than the Nations League. Even with such an unfavorable line, and Hungary’s good form in the Nations League we can’t bring ourselves to bet against Germany.
Italy Gets Passed England
Italy is not going to the World Cup, so their game against England may very well be the most important game that they’ll play from now until the next European qualifying cycle. England have looked shaky in some of their recent outings in the Nations League. Hungary embarrassed them 4-0 in their last meeting in the Nations League.
England should be taking this game seriously because Gareth Southgate’s squad isn’t coming into the tournament in the best form. The game does mean something to both squads, plus it’s a revenge game of the last Euro Cup final. Still, we like the +190 line that Italy is getting at home. That’s the most favorable line of any home team in Thursday’s slate of games.
A Tie Between Romania & Finland
The Nations League is essentially designed to provide us with even matchups. That’s why we have different tiers in the Nations League. To be honest trying to pick winners for the second and third tier matchups is really hard. However, we really liked the +220 line that the draw is getting in this matchup. Romania, at home, actually beat Finland in their latest match that only took place a few months ago. With how evenly matched the game was we feel that Romania took advantage of being at home in that particular game. Playing now on Finland’s turf the tie seems like the most likely outcome of the match.
There are a couple more games in the day, but we did not feel overly comfortable with any of the lines that we’re getting. The Bosnia versus Montenegro game is perhaps one of the most interesting matchups on the field for example. Bosnia is favored, but we didn’t love the -134 line in their favor. That’s why we are only sticking with the 3 picks that we made.
Disclaimer
World Soccer News Now, and its writers cannot be held responsible for the wagers that readers decide to place on games. The content is purely informative, and aims to help readers understand odds that bookmakers assign to games. Any bet placed is the sole responsibility of each user. We don’t charge you for our winners, so we can’t split the difference, on the losers.
